WEEK AHEAD

LAST WEEKLY CALL PERFORMANCE: 13-02-12 To 18-02-12

MCX GOLD APR

Buy abv 28250 Sl 28350 Tgt 28150-28100
[INI 28240] ACHD BOTH TGT ON 13-02-12: PROFIT Rs 19,000

MCX SILVER MAR

Buy abv 56750 Sl *** Tgt ***
EXIT AT 56300 ON 17-02-12:LOSS Rs 13,500

MCX COPPER FEB

Sell below 425 Sl 432 Tgt 418-410
ACHD TGT BOOKD PROFIT AT 412 ON 16-02-12: PROFIT Rs 13,000

MCX NICKEL FEB

Sell below 1035 Sl 1045 Tgt 1025-1015
ACHD BOTH TGT ON 13-02-12: PROFIT Rs 5,000

MCX CRUDE MAR

Sell below 4975 Sl *** Tgt 4940-4900
[INI 4970] EXIT AT 5070 ON 15-02-12:LOSS Rs 10,000

Note: Stop Loss on Weekly Closing Basis.

*** Stop Loss (SL) & Target (Tgt) ¨C for members

WEEKLY OUT-LOOK : 20-02-2012 To 25-02-2012

Note: (1) Last Close price are Provisional. (2) Prices & levels may be rounded up.

THE WEEK AHEAD

Bullion desk experienced choppy week on the back of gloomy issue of Greek bailout. Gold continued trading low with the second weekly loss. German, Italian and Greek leaders expressed optimism that an accord can be reached at a Brussels meeting of euro-area finance ministers on Feb. 20. China pledged to invest in Europe’s bailout funds and sustain its holdings of euro assets. Paulson & Co., the hedge fund founded by billionaire John Paulson, cut its stake in the SPDR Gold Trust for the second straight quarter by 15% while billionaire investor George Soros increased his holdings. BNP Paribas SA raised its 2012 gold forecast to $1,850 an ounce from a previous forecast of $1,775. They hiked its silver forecast to $37.50 an ounce from $35.75.Holdings in Deutsche Bank’s physical gold exchange-traded funds decreased 191 ounces to 1,047,844 ounces as of Feb. 14. After facing the longest slump of 2012. Global demand for gold in 2011 rose to 4,067.1 tonnes (t) worth an estimated US$205.5 billion - the first time that global demand has exceeded US$200 billion and the highest tonnage level since 1997. Demand for bullion in China jumped 20 percent to 769.8 metric tons in 2011, while consumption in India declined 7 percent to 933.4 tons, according to a report from the World Gold Council. Jewelry demand in China increased every quarter in 2011 and was the biggest such market worldwide in the second half, it said. On a quarterly basis, China was already the biggest consumer in the three months to Dec. 31, with demand at 190.9 tons compared with India’s 173 tons, the council said. For the week coming by we expect the Silver to trade weaker while Gold is expected to hold the grounds choppy.

Traders being cautious and liquidates positions on the back of Greece decision to be made this week which can as well be seen at the lesser liquidity at the bullion desk. Net-long positions in Silver rose by 2,081 contracts, or 9 percent, from a week earlier whereas Gold had a net long position fell by 10,087 contracts, or 6 percent, from a week earlier. SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion increased its gold holdings by 2.639 tonne being at 1281.285 tonnes whereas worldwide Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.03% being at 76797939 ounces. Global Silver holdings declined 0.58% at 565880462 ounces. iShare, the world’s largest silver backed ETF reduced its holdings by 108.71 tonns.

Last week passed with bursting of investor confidence resulting into yellow metal’s first second weak week continuing the liquidation. With the last weekly technical break out bullions could maintain the bulls running with the critical resistance break up but the profit booking at the higher prices resulted into retracing the gains.

Gold being mean at COMEX whereas MCX Gold ranged low with 0.7% weekly loss failed to trade below 28000. Silver traded in a choppy range gaining 0.7% at the COMEX losing for the second time in last six weeks; Silver lost 1.7% at MCX.

For the week coming by we expect the Gold prices to continue trading lower backed by weaker signals at Eurozone but the weaker technical of Silver indicates it to be the seller of the week with the next target being 55000 while COMEX Silver is expected to touch $31.60. Gold is expected to trade in a range of 27900-28250 at MCX whereas COMEX Gold is expected to trade within $1690-1765 this week.

Economic News

Week passed by we could witness the progressive efforts at the European front to save the Greece from bankruptcy which got supported by China. Developing world witnessed lower inflation rates posing them to reduce the bank rates. For the week coming by we expect the global economy to advance in the positive direction backed by strong equity front as well as progress at the European front.

U.K. retail sales unexpectedly rose for a second month in January by rising 0.9 percent from December, when they rose 0.6 percent. But the jobless claims rose in January to the highest level since January 2010 and unemployment held at the highest rate for 16 years in the fourth quarter at 8.4 percent as the economy contracted by 0.2 percent.

Euro-zone got certain kickbacks as Moody’s Investors Service cut the debt ratings of six European countries including Italy, Spain and Portugal and said it may strip France and the U.K. of their top Aaa ratings. Euro-Area Economy Shrinks for the First Time Since 2009 wherein Euro-area GDP fell 0.3 percent from the prior three months, the first drop since the second quarter of 2009. Greek Economy Shrank 6.8 Percent in 2011 compared with a 6 percent contraction estimated in the government’s 2012 budget.

European Industrial Output Declines 1.1% from November, when it remained unchanged.

German investor confidence surged to a 10-month high in February rose to 5.4 from minus 21.6 in January.

India Inflation Easing to 26-Month Low Adds to Rate-Cut Case

Australian Employers added 46,300 workers in January, the most since November 2010

Brazil will cut 55 billion reais ($32 billion) from this year’s budget to allow interest rates to fall, while increasing investment to boost growth in the world’s second-biggest emerging market.

Japan’s central bank unexpectedly added 10 trillion yen ($128 billion) to an asset-purchase program and set an inflation goal after an economic slide fueled criticism it has been slower to act than counterparts.

President Barack Obama called for $1.4 trillion in fresh revenue from Americans at the top of the income scale, New York Manufacturing (Empire Manufacturing) expanded in February at the fastest pace since June 2010, to 19.5 from 13.5 in January,

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment dropped to 72.5 from 75 in January, a one-year high, The cost of living in the U.S. rose less than forecast in January by rising 0.2 percent after no change the prior month, The index of U.S. leading indicators rose in January by 0.4 percent followed a 0.5 percent rise in December, the strongest back-to-back gains in almost a year.

Economic slate seems empty in the upcoming week majority of them are as follows: Week starts with Euro group meeting on Monday which will decide the fate of Greece, followed by Euro-zone consumer confidence on Tuesday, on Wednesday with Euro-zone Flash PMI and US Existing Home Sales, on Thursday we have US Jobless Claims, Friday ends the week with U. of Michigan confidence and US New Home sales.

MCX – GOLD – APR

Recommendation

Sell

Trend

Down

Weekly Support

28000-27800

Weekly Resistance

28300- 28500

MCX – SILVER – MAR

Recommendation

Sell

Trend

Down

Weekly Support

55250-54000

Weekly Resistance

57000-58500

MCX – COPPER – FEB

Recommendation

Buy

Trend

Weekly Support

398-390

Weekly Resistance

413-420

MCX – NICKEL – FEB

Recommendation

Buy

Trend

Weekly Support

955-940

Weekly Resistance

985-1000

MCX – CRUDE – MAR

Recommendation

Sell

Trend

Down

Weekly Support

5150-5100

Weekly Resistance

5240-5275

Upcoming Important Data Reports (In coming Week)

21-Feb

EC Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence 20:30

22-Feb

EC PMI Manufacturing 14:30

US MBA Mortgage Applications 17:30

US Existing Home Sales 20:30

23-Feb

US Initial Jobless Claims 19:00

US Continuing Claims 19:00

24-Feb

US U. of Michigan Confidence 20:25

US New Home Sales 20:30

Have a Great & Profitable Week Ahead……..

TRADING TRICKS & TERMS OF CALL

TRADING TRICKS FOR OUR CALL

INTRADAY: These recommendations are for intra-day trading only - do not carry the positions overnight.

1^ST TARGET: When the scrip price is around the 1st target, Safe Traders square off position & Risky Traders square off 50% of position(If more than 1 lot).

2^ND TARGET: When the scrip price is around the 2nd target, square off the remaining 50% quantity(If more than 1 lot); however, if the scrip price does not get near the 2nd target throughout the day, square off at closing.

STOP LOSS: When the scrip price breaks the stop Loss level, exit whatever quantity you have, without waiting further. Adhere to the stop loss tenaciously. STOP LOSS IS PARAMOUNT.

TRADE ALL: [This rule is applicable only to subscribers who have access to all the recommendations]. Since the number of recommendations is few and manageable, trade all the recommendations instead of just one or two. This way, even if one or two recommendation hit the stop loss, it is most likely that the profits from the other successful trades will more than offset the losses from the stopped-out trades.

STOP LOSS ON CLOSING BASIS: Please note Buy & Hold, Positional & BTST call always have Stop Loss on Closing basis, unless otherwise it is mentioned,. Any amendment in calls will be timely followed.

Stop Loss on Closing Basis (SL on CL basis) Means:

Please note Buy & Hold, Positional & BTST call always have Stop Loss on Closing basis, whether mentioned or not, Stop Loss on Closing basis means whatever happens intraday one should hold the calls till closing time. At the time of closing(i.e. keep reasonable time to square up the position . may 3-5 min before) if commodity is trading below stop loss given than you should exit at that level whatever level it is. But if commodity given is trading above given SL at the time of closing you should carry the position. Any amendment, exit call or Target extension will be provided on SMS timely.

For Example: if call is given (Either: Buy & Hold/Short Term/BTST/STBT/Positional) Buy XYZ abv 1000 Sl 975 Tgt 1050-1100. If during the day commodity goes to below 975 say 960-940 or whatever level you should not see but at the time of closing if it is above 975 the call is active & open but if at the time of closing it is trading below 975 say 960-940-925 whatever level you should exit and loss will be accordingly. Any other follow up will be give timely on SMS to members.

Note: Safe traders should strict to Stop loss given and should not take stop loss on closing basis.

NO CONVERSATION: Please note that, there will not be any conversation of any type regarding call given. How-ever service related issue like delay SMS delivery; Un-clear SMS etc. can be addressed through E-mail.

(Above tricks are advisable and not the rules determined, one is expected to follow for fruitful results)

TERMS USED IN OUR CALL

Understand the meaning of Short forms/Terms, we use in our Calls:

INTRA = Intraday

BTST = Buy Today Sell Tomorrow

STBT = Sell today Buy Tomorrow

C/O = Carry Over (Means positional for short term)

POSITIONAL = Call to be hold for Short Term

DELIVERY = Call to be hold for Short Term or Period mentioned

SL = Stop Loss

TGT = Target

EXTN = Extended

SL on CL Basis = Stop Loss on Closing Basis (As described above)

SL on Weekly CL Basis = Stop Loss on Weekly Closing Basis

Stop Losses, targets and time frame are indicative and readers should use their discretion in following the same. Stop losses/trailed stop losses should be strictly implemented in order to protect profits / reduce losses. Non adherence to the same can lead to bigger losses at times

Disclosures/Disclaimers:The Calls/materials contained/made herein are for information purpose and are not recommendation to any person to buy or sell any commodities/securities. The information is derived from sources, that are deemed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. The author does not accept any liability for the use of this column. Readers of this column who buy or sell securities based on the information in this column are solely responsible for their action. We may or may not have any position in given stock. If any other entity, individual or service provider also giving the same script and recommendation than we are not responsible for that. By continuing to read or referring to material contained, you have read and agreed to the disclosure & disclaimers mentioned & published.